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Links from Today's class + Bayesian brain..

Links from Today's class + Bayesian brain..

Here is a link to an article in Economist about some research that seems to show that people might be using prior distributions to make predictions. The article also points out a more important
reason why Bayes is considered big--Bayesian view in statistics allows predictions even with little data, since it assumes that there may be a prior distribution. Frequentists on the other hand distrust priors
and depend only on the data. In practice this means that Bayesians can jump to conclusions with much less data.


(and here is a more technical paper on which that article is based: http://web.mit.edu/cocosci/Papers/Griffiths-Tenenbaum-PsychSci06.pdf )

See also Wikipedia entry for Bayesian Probability http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability which makes it clear that a Bayesian does not tie
probabilities to relative frequencies--she is happy to give a probability to some event such as "seeing a grue wearing green shorts". This view of probability
is sometimes called "personal" probability. Bayesianism has come to dominate probability and statistics.


The Human Language series I mentioned is the series described at http://www.thehumanlanguage.com/page1.html

It is an eminently watchable video series. The ASU media library has copies of this video.